Game 1 of the NBA Finals had everything a fan could ask for: drama, good basketball and a crazy game-winner.
But with the Oklahoma City Thunder leading all the way throughout the game and finishing top of the Western Conference and NBA standings, are they really going to lose to the East’s fourth seed Indiana Pacers after such a dominant year?
And does Indiana have the ability to carry on this winning streak and string of clutch plays that have seen them win so many games this post-season?
Read on as TIBS News breakdowns the match-ups in the Finals and discuss how this series will play out.
The MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Tyrese Haliburton
We’ll start where I believe this series will be decided: with the two teams focal points. The battle between the two point guards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, will be an interesting match-up, but what are the key points to his showdown?
Firstly, Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated Haliburton in recent meetings – with the latter averaging just 13 points against the MVP in their last three meetings compared to the Thunder star’s average of 35.
Now this scoring discrepancy may indicate that Gilgeous-Alexander will continue his dominance and lead his Oklahoma City Thunder to the championship right? On the contrary, I think this may be the exact reason for the Indiana Pacers having a real shot at the ultimate prize this year.
Quite simply Gilgeous-Alexander is too focused on scoring, while Haliburton – despite being the engine of the team – works better on a free-flowing offence where everyone gets a touch. Whereas Gilgeous-Alexander works better when going isolation ball and causing problems when guarded one-on-one.
The Thunder’s offence focuses on the ability of Gilgeous-Alexander to beat his player and go downhill and score. While the Pacers have a more team-based style of offence, the Thunder turn to their MVP to create the offence which could cause fatigue and even the Pacers finding a solution to this as the series goes on.
However, while the free-flowing offence is what works for the Pacers, what if the Thunder defence forces them to play one-on-one offence?
The two defences
The Thunder’s defence can put a stop to the free-flowing offence of the Pacers and force them to play how they want them to, but how? The defensive duo of Alex Caruso and Lu Dort has been menacing this season and this prowess on the defensive end has only grown this playoff season.
Both Caruso and Dort can guard guards, of course, and bigs – as demonstrated by Caruso in the series against the Denver Nuggets where he shut down former MVP Nikola Jokic. Their ability to smother and pressure ball handlers and cut key players out of the game may be the key to stopping the fluid offence of the Pacers.
By forcing the Pacers to play a different brand of basketball than they’re used to, it could create mistakes and chances for fast breaks to tally up the score quickly. If they are looking to do this then they will have to be at the top of their game as both the primary ball handler in Haliburton, and the Pacers in general, have ranked in the top three for the fewest turnovers per game.
Combine these two feisty premier defenders with the size and defensive skills of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, then it looks like a long series for the Pacers.
On the flip side to this, the Pacers also offer similar defenders in Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Ben Shepperd as well as the two bigs in Miles Turner and Pascal Siakam – which will be discussed more in depth later. Nesmith and Nembhard will play a key role in deciding which way this series will go.
We’ve seen it before in the Finals, where role players step up and change the game: Danny Green in Game 3 in 2013 for the San Antonio Spurs, both Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston stepping up in 2015 and 2016 for the Golden State Warriors. Nesmith and Nembhard can have the same impact: both are solid defenders and have the offensive game that can desert Dort and Caruso.
Both teams being able to lock one another down is great and all, but to win the game you need to put the ball in the hoop, and the Pacers seem to have more versatile players who can do both. Add TJ McConnell into the mix as well, a scrappy guard who can do it all, then the Pacers look very strong.
But, you can’t discredit the fact that the Thunder have the best defensive record this year, which makes this aspect of the match-up exciting.
Battle of the bigs
Now, we’ve talked about how the bigs can impact the game defensively, but how about offensively? Both teams have an elite frontcourt and this will be an area where one team can pull away from the other.
Siakam for the Pacers is a powerhouse and a proven winner, having won the championship back in 2019 with the Toronto Raptors. He plays a similar role at the Pacers as he did with the Raptors, a second option who can get to the hoop and score.
Since the last chip, the Cameroonian forward has developed his game to where he can now operate in the mid-range as well as step out beyond the arc and sink the long-range shots. This creates problems for the Thunder as he is a legit three-level scorer who could go for 30 points any night.
Turner is also a threat on the offensive end and has been earning his keep as of late. His size and strength make him a threat under the hoop but his ability to knock down the mid-range jumper as well as the occasional three, opens up the court for the Pacers to run their signature pass dominant style of basketball.
Both the bigs’ ability to hit the jump shot allows the Pacers to run pick and short rolls, allowing for an open shot or when the defender tries to recover, an easy blow by to the rim. We’ve seen this play from the Pacers very often and they’ll be sure to continue to go to this series.
On the opposing side, there’s Holmgren. Now what more can be said about him offensively, he’s 7ft 3in and can pretty much do anything on a basketball court.
Hartenstein, however, is a throwback to the old big man and has a very polished skillset. His ability to get into the lane and score the little floaters and jump hooks will cause the same amount of problems that the Pacers will create with the short pick and rolls. His passing ability out of the post is incredible and will allow the Thunder to create looks when the ball isn’t in Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands.
TIBS News’ verdict
Overall, it’s very close and the two teams are very evenly matched.
The Pacers have gone on a historic run and have created history just by making the Finals, but I can see the Thunder taking it home this year. They have been the best team all year round and will be hard to stop.
However, the Pacers will put up a fight like they have throughout their run and will be a worthy opponent for the Thunder.
Who do you think will take it home this year? Let us know.
